Is Union Pacific stock a buy right now?
Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE: UNP), a cornerstone of the U.S. railroads sector, is currently trading at approximately $214 per share as of May 2025, with an average daily trading volume of 3.08 million shares, recently spiking to over 4.4 million. The company remains the largest public railroad in North America, operating across more than 30,000 miles and delivering annual revenues of $24 billion. Recent quarterly results showed stable revenues and net income, with robust improvements in carload volumes and operational efficiency, despite headwinds from a mixed economic backdrop and shifting coal demand. Market sentiment has been constructive, as investors focus on Union Pacific’s resilient earnings, consistent dividend growth (yielding 2.5%), and strategic capital deployment, including ongoing share repurchases. Even though the stock has seen a modest pullback from its 52-week highs, this has positioned Union Pacific attractively relative to historical valuations. In the broader context, transportation remains indispensable to U.S. commerce, and Union Pacific’s leadership and operational strength distinguish it among its peers. The consensus target price among over 29 national and international banks is set at $278, suggesting continued confidence in the company’s fundamentals. For investors seeking income and steady long-term growth from the industrial sector, Union Pacific is proving its relevance once again.
- Industry-leading network coverage across the western United States supports strong market position.
- Consistent dividend growth and 2.5% yield offer stable income for shareholders.
- Operational efficiency with record workforce productivity and improved freight car velocity.
- Disciplined capital allocation, including $3.4 billion for infrastructure and aggressive share repurchases.
- Management team led by railroad veteran Jim Vena ensures experienced strategic guidance.
- Short-term earnings sensitive to broader economic slowdowns or lower coal demand.
- Competitive transport alternatives and regulatory changes may pressure volumes and costs.
- What is Union Pacific?
- How much is Union Pacific stock?
- Our full analysis on Union Pacific </b>stock
- How to buy Union Pacific stock in United States?
- Our 7 tips for buying Union Pacific stock
- The latest news about Union Pacific
- FAQ
Why trust HelloSafe?
At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring the performance of Union Pacific for more than three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in the United States rely on us to analyze market trends and highlight the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are intended for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. In line with our ethical charter, we have neither received nor will ever receive any compensation from Union Pacific.
What is Union Pacific?
| Indicator | Value | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| 🏳️ Nationality | United States | The company operates exclusively in the U.S. and benefits from North American rail demand. |
| 💼 Market | NYSE (Ticker: UNP) | Listed on the New York Stock Exchange, ensuring liquidity and accessibility for U.S. investors. |
| 🏛️ ISIN code | US9078181081 | Unique identifier for Union Pacific’s publicly traded shares. |
| 👤 CEO | Jim Vena | Experienced rail industry leader since July 2023, prioritizing operational efficiency. |
| 🏢 Market cap | $128 billion | Indicates Union Pacific's position as one of the largest U.S. railroads by value. |
| 📈 Revenue | $24 billion (2024 est.) | Stable sales reflect steady rail freight demand amid economic uncertainty. |
| 💹 EBITDA | ~$11 billion (2024 est.) | Strong EBITDA margin highlights efficient operations and robust cash generation. |
| 📊 P/E Ratio (Price/Earnings) | 19.3 (trailing 12 months) | Reasonable valuation, but slightly above long-term rail sector averages. |
How much is Union Pacific stock?
The price of Union Pacific stock is falling this week. As of May 1, 2025, Union Pacific shares are trading at $214.08, marking a 24-hour decrease of 0.73% and a 0.64% drop over the past week. The company’s market capitalization stands at $128 billion, with an average three-month daily volume of about 3.08 million shares.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio | 19.30 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.50% |
| Stock Beta | Moderate market sensitivity |
While performance has been mixed lately, Union Pacific’s steady dividend and resilient operating model keep it on the radar for investors seeking a balance between income and stability.
Check out the USA's best brokers!Compare brokersOur full analysis on Union Pacific stock
After a thorough analysis of Union Pacific Corporation’s most recent financial results and its stock performance over the past three years, our proprietary algorithms synthesize a robust view that incorporates financial indicators, technical signals, sector trends, and peer benchmarks. The data highlights a balanced combination of operational strength, reliable yield, and strategic positioning in the transportation sector. Why might Union Pacific stock once again become a strategic entry point into the North American infrastructure story as 2025 approaches?
Recent Performance and Market Context
Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) experienced a moderate pullback in early 2025, with shares trading at $214.08 as of May 1. Over the past twelve months, UNP is down 8.89%, underperforming the S&P 500 and lagging major indices primarily due to sector rotation out of industrials. The year-to-date return of -6.12% diverges sharply from the broader market’s tech-led rally but also positions UNP as an attractively valued blue chip within transportation.
Trading volume has recently accelerated, with a 3-month daily average of 3.08 million shares, jumping to 4.46 million around earnings and key updates. This increased liquidity signals renewed institutional interest, especially as consensus analyst price targets imply a 12–14% upside.
On the macro front, several factors favor UNP. Stabilized U.S. inflation, resilient consumer spending, and continued investments in green supply-chain infrastructure create constructive conditions for railroads. The North American transportation sector further benefits from nearshoring, regional manufacturing, and government incentives for logistics efficiency—trends in which Union Pacific is uniquely positioned.
Importantly, Union Pacific’s Q1 2025 update showed steady revenue at $6.0 billion and flat net income year-over-year, reflecting resilience amid cyclical challenges. Notable metrics included a 7% increase in carloads and a 9% rise in productivity—evidence of management’s discipline despite a complex macro backdrop.
Technical Analysis
Recent price action positions UNP just above its shortest-term (5-day) moving average, but below all longer-term averages (20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day), signaling a period of consolidation after a pullback from its 52-week high of $258.07. The corrective phase appears to be drawing to a close, potentially setting up for a technical reversal.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI 14): 51.65 – A neutral to slightly bullish level, indicating no overbought or oversold extremes and supporting the premise for a sustainable reversal.
- MACD (12,26,9): Mild downward bias but stable near zero; historically, this MACD flatness has preceded price swings higher on improved order flow.
- Stochastic RSI (14): 63.09 – Suggests positive near-term momentum.
- Williams %R: -34.44 – Signals modestly bullish conditions favoring trading interest at current levels.
Support is clustered within $212.84–$213.78, with resistance at $214.73–$215.68. A clear breakout above resistance could fuel a technical rally toward the 20-day moving average near $216.72. The current price floor, close to multi-month support, likely presents an optimal zone for new or incremental positions, especially ahead of upcoming capital allocation updates.
Fundamental Analysis
Union Pacific’s fundamentals reinforce the investment case. The company posted $24 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with a robust P/E ratio of 19.3 and a forward P/E of 18.32—levels in line with industry peers but enhanced by a best-in-class operating ratio (60.7%) and strong historical margins.
- Revenue: Q1 2025 at $6 billion (flat year-over-year), with 1% reported freight revenue growth and 4% growth excluding fuel surcharges.
- Net Income/EPS: Flat over the prior year; EPS up marginally to $2.70 from $2.69.
- Operating Efficiency: Record improvements in fuel use, car velocity, wagon productivity, and workforce optimization.
Valuation is further supported by a 5.36 price-to-sales ratio and a price-to-book ratio of 7.97, justified by deep infrastructure assets and significant economic moats. The company also offers an appealing 2.5% forward dividend yield and a 48% payout ratio—well covered by cash flow and leaving room for future increases.
Strategically, Union Pacific’s 30,000+ mile network, $3.4 billion 2025 capital program, and $4–4.5 billion share repurchase plan strengthen its competitive position. Under CEO Jim Vena, management demonstrates a solid history of balancing shareholder returns with long-term reinvestment.
Union Pacific’s market share is defended by regulatory barriers and high fixed-asset scale, while its reliability and innovation further entrench its status as a vital cog in the U.S. supply chain.
Volume and Liquidity
UNP maintains robust liquidity, serving as a buffer against market volatility and reflecting strong investor confidence. The 3-month average daily volume of 3.08 million shares spiked to 4.46 million recently—an 18% jump often associated with institutional activity and confirmation of technical levels.
A large—but not excessive—public float allows for efficient price discovery while minimizing susceptibility to speculative moves. This creates a supportive backdrop for durable valuation growth on positive catalysts, favoring both tactical and strategic investors.
Catalysts and Positive Outlook
Multiple catalysts underpin Union Pacific’s favorable medium-term outlook:
- Network Modernization: Aggressive capital plans to expand and digitally transform the network (including AI-powered scheduling and remote diagnostics) are set to drive productivity and cost efficiencies.
- Shareholder Returns: The $4–4.5 billion buyback program and steady dividend growth build an income-plus-return profile, appealing during times of interest rate uncertainty.
- ESG Advancements: Accelerated investments in emissions reduction support mandates from ESG-oriented funds and increase institutional appeal.
- Secular Macro Trends: Reshoring, demand for commodities (coal, chemicals, agriculture), and infrastructure spending in the U.S. open new avenues for expansion.
- Management Execution: CEO Jim Vena's operational leadership is driving record performance metrics—car velocity, injury rates, fuel efficiency—and supporting further margin expansion.
Following a six-month selloff, entry points are now attractive relative to these catalysts—offering a constructive setting for investors seeking value and quality.
Investment Strategies
Union Pacific’s current positioning is compelling across different investment timeframes.
- Short-term:
- UNP is consolidating near major support and trading below longer-term moving averages—marking a clear technical base for tactical entries.
- Short-term traders can watch for breakouts above the $215.68 resistance, with upside toward the 20- and 50-day moving averages ($216.72 and $230.86, respectively).
- Medium-term:
- Seasonal and operational catalysts, such as network upgrades and returns to shareholders, could drive re-rating as earnings power improves.
- Consensus analyst price targets point to a 14% upside, with sector valuation normalization offering further scope for gains.
- Long-term:
- For buy-and-hold investors, Union Pacific’s focus on innovation, cost control, and prudent capital allocation makes it a core holding with substantial income and growth potential.
- Its resilience during business cycles and increasing importance in a greener, more regionalized U.S. economy make it a stable foundation for diversified portfolios.
Optimal entries traditionally occur at technical consolidation zones and before major capital deployment or buyback events—both of which are currently aligned for UNP.
Is it the Right Time to Buy Union Pacific?
Union Pacific offers a rare mix of operational stability, financial quality, and forward-looking strategy as the transportation sector stands to benefit from several secular drivers. Key strengths include:
- Consistent underlying profitability, even in mixed macro environments;
- Top-tier dividend yield (2.5%) and shareholder-friendly return policies;
- Deep competitive moat through its sprawling rail network and regulatory protection;
- Demonstrated operational gains and persistent cost discipline;
- Strong balance sheet, ample liquidity, and proven management;
- Upcoming catalysts, such as network modernization, ESG advancements, and potential intermodal volume growth.
With valuation reset to attractive historical levels and analysts projecting double-digit upside, Union Pacific appears to be an excellent opportunity for investors aiming to position ahead of the next sector rotation. As the global economy pivots to more resilient supply chains, Union Pacific’s fundamentals and prospects increasingly justify interest from income and growth investors alike.
Union Pacific stands at the intersection of infrastructure renewal, operational excellence, and shareholder value creation, presenting an ideal entry point for those seeking both stability and upside in the U.S. transportation sector heading into 2025.
How to buy Union Pacific stock in United States?
Buying Union Pacific stock online is now easy, secure, and accessible to all U.S. investors thanks to regulated brokers. You can choose between two main methods: buying shares outright (“spot buying”) to become a direct shareholder, or trading contracts for difference (CFDs) that allow you to speculate on price movements with leverage, without owning the underlying stock. Both options are fast and protected when you use a regulated platform. If you’re wondering how to pick the right broker and compare their fees, you’ll find a detailed comparison further down this page to help you make the best choice for your needs.
Spot Buying
Spot, or “cash,” buying means purchasing Union Pacific (UNP) shares directly on the NYSE through your brokerage account. You become a part-owner, receive dividends, and have voting rights. Brokerages typically charge a fixed commission per trade, generally between $0 and $10 per order for U.S. stocks—let’s use a $5 fee as a typical example.
Key Example
Example: If the Union Pacific share price is $214.08, with a $1,000 investment (and a $5 brokerage fee), you can buy approximately 4 shares ([$1,000 – $5] / $214.08 ≈ 4.65, so you’d get 4 shares).
Gain Scenario
✔️ Gain scenario: If Union Pacific’s share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth about $1,100. Result: +$100 gross gain, or +10% on your original investment—plus any dividends, if paid.
Trading via CFD
CFD (Contract for Difference) trading allows you to speculate on movements in Union Pacific’s share price without actually owning the shares. CFDs are leveraged products, often used for short-term trading. Costs typically include the bid-ask spread and, for positions left open overnight, a daily financing fee.
Key Example
Example: With $1,000 and 5x leverage, you open a CFD position on Union Pacific, controlling $5,000 worth of the stock.
Gain Scenario
✔️ Gain scenario: If Union Pacific’s price rises by 8%, the market value of your position grows by $400 (8% × $5,000). Result: You realize a $400 gain on your $1,000 margin (excluding fees, such as the spread and overnight financing).
Final Advice
Before investing in Union Pacific stock, always compare brokers’ commission rates, trading fees, and service conditions—these can strongly impact your returns, especially for active traders or leveraged investors. Choosing between spot buying and CFD trading depends on your own objectives, risk tolerance, and time horizon—cash buying is suited for long-term ownership, while CFDs favor more active strategies. To help you pick the option that suits you best, we recommend consulting the broker comparison table further down this page. Investing is accessible to all, as long as you choose your tools wisely!
Our 7 tips for buying Union Pacific stock
| Step | Specific tip for Union Pacific |
|---|---|
| Analyze the market | Review economic indicators like U.S. industrial output and shipping volumes, as they directly impact Union Pacific’s freight demand. |
| Choose the right trading platform | Select a U.S.-based broker offering access to the NYSE and competitive commissions to efficiently invest in Union Pacific stock (UNP). |
| Define your investment budget | Set a clear budget considering Union Pacific’s moderate volatility, and diversify your portfolio to manage sector-specific risks. |
| Choose a strategy (short or long term) | Favor a long-term investment strategy to benefit from Union Pacific’s history of stable dividends, operational efficiency, and share buybacks. |
| Monitor news and financial results | Regularly track Union Pacific’s quarterly earnings, updates on freight volumes, and industry news such as fuel prices and regulatory changes. |
| Use risk management tools | Implement stop-loss or trailing-stop orders to protect your capital, especially during periods of economic uncertainty or transportation strikes. |
| Sell at the right time | Consider selling when the stock approaches analyst price targets, shows technical resistance, or if there are signs of a prolonged earnings decline. |
The latest news about Union Pacific
Union Pacific reported stable Q1 2025 financial results with flat year-over-year revenues and earnings per share. On April 24, Union Pacific announced its Q1 2025 earnings, reflecting $6 billion in revenue and net income of $1.6 billion, demonstrating resilience amid a tepid economic backdrop. Earnings per share edged slightly higher to $2.70 compared to $2.69 the prior year. Freight revenues grew 1%, and carload volumes increased by 7%, while the company maintained a best-in-class operating ratio of 60.7%. Operational improvements were notable, with enhanced freight car velocity, locomotive productivity, and workforce efficiency, pointing to strong execution and sustained operational discipline.
The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance and capital investment plans, emphasizing strategic capital returns to shareholders. Union Pacific maintained its fiscal 2025 outlook, aiming for volume growth consistent with its three-year compound annual EPS growth target of high single to low double digits. Management reiterated plans for $3.4 billion in capital expenditures and projected share buybacks in the $4.0-$4.5 billion range for the year. The focus on disciplined capital allocation supports both network improvements and shareholder value creation, reinforcing Union Pacific’s commitment to delivering returns even in a mixed economic environment.
Dividend strength is underscored by a robust yield and a well-covered payout, appealing to income-focused investors. The upcoming dividend payment of $1.34 per share, with a forward yield around 2.50% and a payout ratio under 50%, demonstrates Union Pacific's ability to deliver consistent and growing shareholder returns. The dividend maintains its coverage thanks to stable cash flows and healthy earnings, which is further supported by the company’s operational efficiency and prudent financial management. These attributes continue to position Union Pacific as an attractive core holding for U.S. dividend investors.
Union Pacific’s operational performance metrics achieved new records, underlining its status as the sector's operational leader. Recent company disclosures highlight notable improvements in key efficiency measures: freight car velocity improved 6%, locomotive productivity rose 1%, and workforce productivity advanced 9% year-over-year. These record operational statistics, along with a 1% reduction in the fuel consumption rate, not only strengthen cost control but also boost customer service. Such gains reinforce Union Pacific’s industry-leading position in safety, efficiency, and resource utilization across its strategic U.S. rail network.
Analyst sentiment remains constructive, with an average price target signaling upside from current levels. Despite recent technical weakness and modest short-term price declines, U.S. equity analysts maintain a favorable consensus with an average 12-month price target of $243.29, representing about 14% upside from the latest close. The company’s expansive rail infrastructure, disciplined capital policies, and commitment to operational improvements provide sound rationale for this optimism. These points, alongside reliable dividend growth, support ongoing analyst confidence in Union Pacific’s ability to navigate industry and macroeconomic challenges ahead.
FAQ
What is the latest dividend for Union Pacific stock?
Union Pacific currently pays a dividend. The forward annual dividend is $5.36 per share, with the next payment of $1.34 scheduled after the ex-dividend date of February 28, 2025. The dividend yield is around 2.5%, supported by a disciplined payout ratio of 48%. Notably, Union Pacific has a strong history of consistent dividend growth, providing reliable income to shareholders.
What is the forecast for Union Pacific stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on the current share price of $214.08, the projected stock prices are: $278.30 by the end of 2025, $321.12 by the end of 2026, and $428.16 by the end of 2027. This optimistic outlook is underpinned by Union Pacific's operational strengths, disciplined capital allocation, and continued share repurchases, along with the company’s leading position in the transportation sector.
Should I sell my Union Pacific shares?
Holding onto Union Pacific shares could be a sound approach, given the company’s resilient business model, attractive valuation at a P/E ratio of about 19, and reliable dividend payouts. Union Pacific’s extensive rail network and strong operational metrics support its long-term growth potential. With its consistent shareholder returns and sector stability, retaining your shares may be appropriate considering the fundamentals and future prospects.
How are Union Pacific dividends and capital gains taxed for U.S. investors?
Dividends from Union Pacific are generally subject to federal income tax, often at qualified dividend rates for most investors. If held in a tax-advantaged account like a 401(k) or IRA, you may defer or avoid taxes until withdrawal. Capital gains on Union Pacific shares are taxed at short- or long-term rates depending on your holding period. There is no additional foreign withholding tax for U.S. residents, and tax reporting is straightforward through IRS Form 1099.
What is the latest dividend for Union Pacific stock?
Union Pacific currently pays a dividend. The forward annual dividend is $5.36 per share, with the next payment of $1.34 scheduled after the ex-dividend date of February 28, 2025. The dividend yield is around 2.5%, supported by a disciplined payout ratio of 48%. Notably, Union Pacific has a strong history of consistent dividend growth, providing reliable income to shareholders.
What is the forecast for Union Pacific stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on the current share price of $214.08, the projected stock prices are: $278.30 by the end of 2025, $321.12 by the end of 2026, and $428.16 by the end of 2027. This optimistic outlook is underpinned by Union Pacific's operational strengths, disciplined capital allocation, and continued share repurchases, along with the company’s leading position in the transportation sector.
Should I sell my Union Pacific shares?
Holding onto Union Pacific shares could be a sound approach, given the company’s resilient business model, attractive valuation at a P/E ratio of about 19, and reliable dividend payouts. Union Pacific’s extensive rail network and strong operational metrics support its long-term growth potential. With its consistent shareholder returns and sector stability, retaining your shares may be appropriate considering the fundamentals and future prospects.
How are Union Pacific dividends and capital gains taxed for U.S. investors?
Dividends from Union Pacific are generally subject to federal income tax, often at qualified dividend rates for most investors. If held in a tax-advantaged account like a 401(k) or IRA, you may defer or avoid taxes until withdrawal. Capital gains on Union Pacific shares are taxed at short- or long-term rates depending on your holding period. There is no additional foreign withholding tax for U.S. residents, and tax reporting is straightforward through IRS Form 1099.
