Schengen visa rejection rates 2026: odds by nationality
A. FruchardCo-Founder & Travel Insurance ExpertLast updated: August 26, 2026More than 12 million Schengen visa applications were filed in 2025 — about 12.2 million, up 4.3% on the 11.7 million recorded in 2024 — yet the figures still reveal deep disparities between regions. Refusal rates range from under 5% in East Asia to more than 30% across North Africa and above 50% in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, illustrating one of the sharpest geographic divides observed in recent years.
The European Commission published its 2025 Schengen visa statistics on 28 May 2026. Three headline movements:
📈 More than 12 million applications in 2025 (≈12.2 M, +4.3% vs 11.7 M in 2024) and over 10 million visas issued (+5.2%).
❌ The global refusal rate eased to 14.6%, from 14.8% in 2024 — a third consecutive annual fall.
🌍 The extremes moved apart: Algeria fell to 31% (from 35%) and Russia to 6.4% (from 7.5%), while Senegal rose to 51.9% (from 46.8%), Burundi to 53.4% (from 40%) and the DR Congo to 40.1% (from 29.9%).
💶 HelloSafe estimate: refused Schengen applications cost applicants around €329 million in 2025 — roughly 1.78 million refused files at an average €185 of non-refundable expenses each, against €316 million in 2024. The refusal rate is falling, but the bill is rising, because application volumes are growing faster than the rate is easing.
ℹ️ The country, consulate and refusal-reason breakdowns further down this page remain based on the Commission’s complete 2024 datasets, still the most recent published at that level of detail.
HelloSafe presents its exclusive 2026 Schengen Visa Refusal Barometer, an in-depth analysis built on the European Commission's 2025 headline statistics (published 28 May 2026) and its complete 2024 datasets by nationality, Member State and consulate. Compiled from thousands of consular data points, this report offers one of the clearest global views available today on Schengen visa applications and refusal patterns — in a year marked by continued post-Covid recovery, a €90 visa fee and the biometric Entry/Exit System (EES), now live at the external borders.
🌍 12.2 million applications in 2025 — +4.3% vs. 2024
✅ Over 10 million visas issued in 2025 — +5.2%
❌ Global refusal rate: 14.6% (≈1 in 7 applications), down from 14.8% in 2024
🇸🇳 Senegal 51.9% and 🇧🇮 Burundi 53.4%: the steepest refusal rates recorded in 2025
🇩🇿 Algeria: 31% in 2025, down from 35%
💶 €329 million lost in 2025 to non-refundable rejected files (HelloSafe estimate)
💸 €185: average cost per rejected file
🇨🇳 China: 1.78M applications (+59%) — refusal rate 4.6% (2024 data)
⚖️ African applicants are 8× more likely to be refused than Asian applicants (2024 data)
⏳ 25–30 days processing time in North Africa (vs. 15 days globally)
💼 Top reasons: financial resources (21%), non-compliant insurance (15%), doubts about return (12%)
Schengen visa refusal rate: application volumes rebound, but rejection levels remain high
Schengen visa refusal rate (% of total applications) by year
Year | Applications (millions) | Estimated refusal rate |
|---|---|---|
2022 | ~7.6 | 17.9% |
2023 | ~10.3 | 16.0% |
2024 | 11.7 | 14.8% |
2025 | 12.2 | 14.6% |
The gradual decline in the refusal rate is partly due to the strong return of Asian travellers — but this global improvement masks pronounced disparities between regions.
Short-stay (type C) applications reached 11.7 million in 2024, up 13.6% year-on-year. The global refusal rate decreased slightly (–1.2 pts vs. 2023) but remains well above its pre-pandemic level (9.9% in 2019).In practice, around one in seven applications is still rejected.
While the recovery in Asian travel contributes significantly to the improvement, persistent regional gaps continue to shape the Schengen visa landscape.
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Top 10 countries with the highest number of Schengen visa applications (and refusal rates 2024)
In 2024 the Schengen Member States processed over 11.7 million short-stay visa applications — yet approval odds varied widely across nationalities. Chinese applicants filed 1.78 million applications (the highest volume) and recorded a refusal rate of 4.6%, while applicants from Algeria were refused in 35% of cases — illustrating a dramatic gap in outcomes.
Visa refusals represent a significant financial burden for applicants: Schengen visa application fees, visa-center charges and non-refundable insurance accumulate to an estimated €316 million in losses in 2024 — with nearly 60% of this amount borne by the ten most affected nationalities. These disparities fuel a perception of increasingly uneven access to Schengen visas among countries with high refusal rates.
Schengen visa applications: refusal rates by country in 2024
Rank | Country | Applications | Var. 23→24 | Refusals (Volume) | Refusal rate | 💸 Estimated losses (€) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 🇨🇳 China | 1 779 255 | +59.2% | 80 703 | 4.6% | €14.9 M |
2 | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | 1 173 917 | +11.1% | 170 129 | 14.5% | €31.5 M |
3 | 🇮🇳 India | 1 108 239 | +14.6% | 165 266 | 15.0% | €30.6 M |
4 | 🇲🇦 Morocco | 606 800 | +2.6% | 115 774 | 20.1% | €21.4 M |
5 | 🇷🇺 Russia | 606 594 | +2.5% | 44 885 | 7.5% | €8.3 M |
6 | 🇩🇿 Algeria | 544 634 | +14.8% | 185 101 | 35.0% | €34.2 M |
7 | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 505 455 | ~0% | 29 517 | 5.9% | €5.5 M |
8 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 470 569 | +5.7% | 32 390 | 6.9% | €6.0 M |
9 | 🇹🇭 Thailand | 265 243 | −1.9% | 16 361 | 6.2% | €3.0 M |
10 | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 244 701 | +3.5% | 62 997 | 25.7% | €11.7 M |
The estimate of economic losses (€329 M for 2025) is based on the formula: number of refusals × average cost per file = 1.78 M × €185. On the 2024 data the same formula gave €316 M (1.7 M × €185).
The average cost includes:
€90 in consular visa fees (EU tariff, unchanged since June 2024),
€30 in external visa center fees (VFS/TLScontact),
€45 for Schengen-compliant travel insurance,
€20 in administrative costs (translations, transportation).
These values reflect typical non-refundable expenses for an applicant in case of refusal.
Stark geographic and economic divides
Region | Average refusal rate 2024 | Reading |
|---|---|---|
North Africa | 29–35% | World record — 2 to 3 times the global average |
Sub-Saharan Africa | 24–28% | Strong heterogeneity by country |
South Asia | 13–17% | India and Pakistan highly contrasted |
East Asia | <10% | China and Japan almost “VIP” |
Middle East | 10–15% | Saudi Arabia, Emirates: low refusal rates |
Americas | 5–8% | Lowest rates, close to EU area |
👉 In 2024, an African applicant was 8× more likely to be refused than an Asian applicant, and 12× more likely than a traveler from the Americas.
China stands out with a spectacular +59% rise in applications, driven by the post-Covid recovery of tourism and business travel. Despite this surge, refusal rates remain very low (4.6%), thanks to generally well-prepared files and strong financial documentation. Other Asian countries such as Saudi Arabia or Thailand also exhibit refusal rates below 10%.
South Asia shows mid-to-high refusal levels overall (13–17%), but with a striking gap between India and Pakistan: India is around 15% refused, versus ~47% for Pakistan in 2024, unlike East Asia where refusal rates are consistently low (<10%).
In contrast, North African countries — Algeria, Morocco and Egypt — face a well-known triple challenge:
- Longer processing times,
- High rejection rates (up to 35%),
- Significant financial losses (≈€185 per rejected file)
In high-flow countries like India or Türkiye, refusal rates hover around 15%. Most rejections stem from insufficient financial proof or non-compliant travel insurance.
Overall, refusal rates depend less on volume than on region, profile and consulate-specific practices. Larger application volumes are statistically associated with lower refusal rates (correlation ~–0.45).
Nationalities considered “high-risk” — especially in North Africa — remain disproportionately affected, while Asian travelers benefit from more favorable outcomes for equivalent documentation.
Profile of the applicant most likely to be refused
There is a typical applicant profile that concentrates most refusal decisions:
👤 Median age: 31
💼 Male in 58% of cases, monthly income below €700
🎒 Planned stay under 20 days
This profile corresponds mainly to short family visits or tourism. Files are often weakened by incomplete documentation.
In contrast, applicants from the Gulf or East Asia generally submit premium insurance, stronger financial proof and achieve >90% approval rates.
Refusal reasons: administrative and financial criteria remain decisive
Across all nationalities, four structural factors account for most Schengen visa refusals. The leading cause remains insufficient financial resources (21%), as consulates rigorously evaluate an applicant’s ability to cover travel, accommodation and daily expenses. The second major factor is non-compliant travel insurance (15%) — one of the most underestimated requirements. Thousands of applications are refused each year because insurance lacks the mandatory €30,000 medical coverage, repatriation, or a certificate recognized by consulates. Applicants must hold travel insurance compliant with Schengen visa requirements, including minimum medical coverage and repatriation.
A third significant cause is an unclear or weakly justified travel purpose (12%), typically when itineraries, invitations or supporting documents fail to establish a credible reason for the trip.
Breakdown of refusals by reason in 2024 – all nationalities combined
Across regions, refusal patterns vary depending on local administrative practices, document availability, and socioeconomic context. Financial guarantees, clarity of travel purpose, and consistency across documents remain among the most decisive factors for consulates worldwide.
Refusal reasons (% of total applications – all countries combined, 2024)
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Breakdown of refusals by reason AND by region in 2024
Refusal patterns vary significantly by region, reflecting differences in socioeconomic context, documentation practices and consular expectations.
In North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa, the dominant factor is insufficient financial resources (25–28%), combined with a higher prevalence of vague or weakly justified travel purposes (9–10%) and return-related concerns (10–18%).
In South Asia, refusals are more evenly distributed, with elevated shares for both financial resources (22%) and purpose of travel (14%).
By contrast, East Asia displays the lowest rate of documentary issues, with refusals mainly tied to purpose of travel (13%) or return-related concerns (7%), and only 6% linked to non-compliant insurance.
The Middle East and the Americas show moderate refusal levels overall: the Middle East is primarily driven by purpose of travel (12%), while the Americas stand out for a relatively high proportion of unclear travel motivation (18%).
Finally, Eastern Europe exhibits a distinct pattern, with an unusually high proportion of refusals grounded in security or public-order concerns (10%), the highest across all regions.
Main reason | North Africa | Sub-Saharan Africa | South Asia | East Asia | Middle East | Americas | Eastern Europe | 🌐 Estimated global total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
💶 Insufficient financial resources | 25% | 28% | 22% | 10% | 15% | 12% | 15% | 21% |
🩺 Non-compliant travel insurance | 20% | 18% | 17% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 15% |
🧳 Vague / unjustified travel purpose | 9% | 10% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 18% | 9% | 12% |
🔁 Doubts about returning home | 18% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 13% | 12% |
🪪 Incomplete or falsified documents | 7% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% |
🏠 Unproven accommodation | 6% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 6% |
⏳ Problematic travel history | 5% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 8% | 6% |
🔒 Security / public order concerns | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 10% | 4% |
🛂 Previous visa refused | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
🧭 Misleading declarations | 3% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
🗂️ Wrong consular jurisdiction | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
The most restrictive Schengen destination countries
Rank | 🇪🇺 Schengen country | Refusal rate 2024 | Applications | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 🇲🇹 Malta | 38.5% | 45,578 | Low application volume: refusal rates can be more volatile, and capacity constraints / stricter screening tend to weigh more heavily. |
2 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | 27.2% | 12,125 | Very small volume: a limited number of “high-risk” files can significantly lift the overall refusal rate. |
3 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | 24.6% | 255,564 | High refusal rate despite sizeable volume, suggesting consistently stricter decisions than the Schengen average. |
4 | 🇸🇮 Slovenia | 24.5% | 18,171 | Low-to-mid volume: outcomes are sensitive to the composition of applications handled (few consular routes can skew results). |
5 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | 24.0% | 188,623 | Elevated refusal rate at relatively high volume, pointing to tighter issuance patterns than the Schengen mean. |
6 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | 23.7% | 132,158 | Close to Sweden/Belgium levels, indicating comparatively strict issuance outcomes vs. the Schengen average. |
7 | 🇭🇷 Croatia | 19.3% | 42,165 | Mid volume; refusal rate clearly above the Schengen average (14.8%), but below the top cluster. |
8 | 🇵🇱 Poland | 17.3% | 111,538 | Moderate refusal rate at meaningful volume; still above the Schengen average. |
9 | 🇫🇷 France | 15.8% | 3,072,728 | Very high volume tends to “stabilize” the rate; France sits slightly above the Schengen average. |
10 | 🇨🇿 Czechia | 15.8% | 150,629 | Similar refusal rate to France but at far lower volume; still above the Schengen average. |
Smaller states (Malta, Estonia) reject more applications due to limited consular capacity.
In 2024, not all Schengen states applied the same criteria when issuing visas. Some countries stand out for particularly strict issuance outcomes.
Based on the European Commission (DG HOME) – Visa Statistics 2024 (“by Member State” data), Malta records the highest refusal rate (38.5%), meaning nearly 4 in 10 applications were not issued. Estonia follows (27.2%), ahead of Belgium (24.6%), Slovenia (24.5%) and Sweden (24.0%).
Among the major issuing states, France shows a refusal rate of 15.8% in 2024 — slightly above the Schengen average (14.8%) — while high-volume countries tend to display more stable rates due to the size of their application base.
Strictest Schengen Consulates regarding Visa Refusal
Rank | 🇪🇺 Member State | 🌍 Host country | 🏛️ Consulate | 📄 Applications | ❌ Refusals | % Refusals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 🇫🇷 France | 🇩🇿 Algeria | Algiers | 197 868 | 63 217 | 31.5% |
2 | 🇫🇷 France | 🇩🇿 Algeria | Oran | 80 462 | 30 670 | 40.5% |
3 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 🇮🇳 India | New Delhi | 217 373 | 26 126 | 12.0% |
4 | 🇫🇷 France | 🇩🇿 Algeria | Annaba | 73 965 | 24 810 | 35.0% |
5 | 🇩🇪 Germany | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | Istanbul | 119 595 | 22 084 | 18.5% |
6 | 🇬🇷 Greece | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | Istanbul | 183 156 | 21 852 | 11.9% |
7 | 🇫🇷 France | 🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire | Abidjan | 62 786 | 20 496 | 33.5% |
8 | 🇫🇷 France | 🇹🇳 Tunisia | Tunis | 106 617 | 19 626 | 18.7% |
9 | 🇫🇷 France | 🇲🇦 Morocco | Casablanca (just outside the top 10 but very close) | ≈ 110 000 | ≈ 18 000 | ≈ 16% |
10 | 🇪🇸 Spain | 🇲🇦 Morocco | Rabat (close to the threshold) | ≈ 100 000 | ≈ 16 000 | ≈ 16% |
👉 The three French consulates in Algeria (Algiers, Oran, Annaba) rank among the world’s top 4 for refusals.
👉 Taken together, they account for over 118,000 refusals, i.e. nearly 7% of all Schengen refusals worldwide.
👉 The Swiss consulate in New Delhi is the largest Asian issuer of refusals, driven by the massive volume of Indian applications.
👉 North African consulates (Tunisia, Morocco) concentrate most rejections, often due to non-compliant travel insurance or insufficient financial proof.
Outlook 2026: the biometric border is live, ETIAS is not
The transformation announced in the last edition has happened. The EES (Entry/Exit System) began its phased rollout on 12 October 2025 and has been operational at the external borders of the 29 participating countries since April 2026: travellers are registered biometrically — face and fingerprints — on entry and exit, and the passport stamp is being retired. Full enforcement of those checks at every crossing point is scheduled for 6 September 2026, and press reporting in August 2026 indicates the European Commission is weighing an extension of the derogation that lets border posts suspend them; no formal decision has been announced.
The rest of the digital agenda has slipped. The digital Schengen visa, filed 100% online, is still ahead of us rather than behind. ETIAS — the pre-travel authorisation for visa-exempt travellers — has been delayed indefinitely: the expected-launch date was removed from the official EU site in July 2026 and the delay was confirmed as open-ended in August 2026, with eu-LISA due to put a revised timetable to its management board in September 2026 and 2027 the working expectation. Note that ETIAS never applied to Schengen visa applicants in the first place — if you need a Type C visa, its delay changes nothing for you.
One forecast from the previous edition can now be scored, and it was wrong. HelloSafe expected the biometric transition to push the refusal rate up by 1 to 2 percentage points in 2025. It did not: the published rate fell to 14.6%, from 14.8%. The friction of the transition has so far landed at the border — queues of up to two hours at hubs such as Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Munich through summer 2026 — rather than in consular decisions, which are still driven by financial proof, insurance compliance and travel purpose.
In short, Europe is entering the era of “smart borders”, but the transition to this digital frontier will require rigor and patience — both from travelers and consular authorities.
Methodology & official sources
This exclusive HelloSafe barometer is based on the aggregation and independent analysis of several public and institutional databases covering the years 2024 and 2025.
All figures cited come from official European sources or from internal calculations derived from these datasets.
ℹ️ Note on scope: All figures presented at the beginning of this report refer to the Schengen Area as a whole (i.e., all Schengen Member States combined), not to France only — unless a country is explicitly mentioned (e.g., “France”, “Switzerland”, “Malta”, etc.).
Core data
Application volumes and refusal rates are drawn from the DG HOME – European Commission portal: section Visa Statistics 2025 (published 28 May 2026) for the 2025 headline figures, and Visa Statistics 2024 for the breakdowns by nationality, Member State and consulate.
Country breakdown and changes
Statistics by nationality (China, India, Algeria, etc.) are taken from the DG HOME “by nationality, 2024 edition” file.
Refusal reasons and the role of insurance
Refusal reasons are based on the EU Visa Code (Regulation EC No 810/2009, Annex VI) and European Commission reports. The weighting of key causes is a weighted average consolidated from public reports by the consulates of France, Spain, Belgium and Greece.
Most restrictive Schengen countries
National refusal rates are taken directly from the DG HOME – Visa Statistics 2024 “by Member State” file. Qualitative comments are based on SchengenVisaInfo (2024), Euractiv (2025) and consular press reports.
Profile of the applicant most likely to be refused
Profile reconstructed from:
- Activity reports by VFS Global, TLScontact and BLS International (2023–2024),
- Studies by the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) and articles from AP News / Business Today,
- DG HOME statistics by refusal reason.
This is an indicative, non-nominal profile: male, 31 years old, income <€700/month, tourist stay <20 days, non-compliant local travel insurance.
2025 outlook and regulation
Elements related to digitalization (EES, digital visa, ETIAS) are based on:
- Council of the European Union, press release of March 15, 2024 (EES entry into force on October 12, 2025)
- European Commission – DG HOME, proposal COM(2023) 228 final (digital visa by end of 2026)
The previous edition anticipated a temporary increase of +1 to +2 percentage points in the refusal rate in 2025 due to the biometric transition. The Commission's 2025 data did not confirm it: the global rate fell to 14.6%. HelloSafe therefore no longer forecasts a transition-driven rise for 2026.
Main documentary sources
- European Commission – DG HOME, Visa Statistics 2024
- Regulation (EC) No 810/2009 – Schengen Visa Code
- Council of the European Union – EES & ETIAS communications
- SchengenVisaInfo, Data Portal & Country Reports 2024
- Business Today, AP News, The Times of India
- Aggregation & modeling by HelloSafe (2025)
This study is based on:
- Official statistics from the European Commission (DG HOME), 2024 edition;
- Analysis of reports by nationality, Member State and consulate;
- A HelloSafe aggregation of refusal data and average costs. 2025 rates are projections based on 2024 trends and regulatory changes (EES, digital visa).
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